Showing posts with label Economic Forecasting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economic Forecasting. Show all posts

Monday, May 14, 2018

The Great Disruption

The Great Disruption: Why the Climate Crisis Will Bring on the End of Shopping and the Birth of a New World by Paul Gilding             Audio Book: 11 hours    Hardback Book:  304 pages  

Very illuminating book.   I enjoyed it.   Difficult topics are broken down into laymen’s terms, all topics are addressed clearly and concisely without a lot of  rhetoric.    Paul Gilding provides highly researched prognostications on the outcomes of global warming,  overpopulation,  depletion of food sources and land to grow it on or feed meat sources on,  economic failure in all countries, and more.   He points out that man is killing the planet and sustainability at the current rate is a ticking time bomb unless major changes come.    The four major areas of sustainable energy sources that need further investment and development the author says are currently Hydro Power (water),  Wind,  Solar and Thermal (energy generated within the earth’s core and stored in the earth).     While burning fossil fuels – coal, oil have been the standard the rampant use of these fuels is putting so much carbon into the air that the earth’s temperature is rising which is the reason for the ice melting at the poles causing the oceans to rise.   Not long ago, scientists projected or were projecting at the rate we are going there might be 50 years before the chaos would begin, climates changing, super weather cells developing causing mass devastation in their paths as these occurrences multiply and break out globally, economic and financial collapse as international debt grows,  overpopulation causes less available space on the planet and so on.    Those same scientists are astonished and are having to reassess as many of their projections are being seen in the world today.    He poses the current problems on the path as it stands today and the potential outcomes, then, he lights a candle in the darkness and assures the reader that it is not all gloom and doom that a small percentage of work is being done to preserve life as we know it and given the human nature, man will work on solutions to counteract all of the dire problems we are experiencing in the environment as we know it.   New thoughts, new ways of doing things will eventually have to be done whether corporations like it or not.   He talks about new technologies evolving sparking growth of new industries which in turn will boost the slagging economies.  He discusses how in the past man’s ingenuity has bailed him out of hard times and created innovative ways of solving dilemmas and changing the way man lives.   Newer, better ways of doing things are never easy nor cheap but mankind is rapidly approaching the brink where either things change or man will go the way of the dinosaur.    Progress has gotten us here now progress is going to have to create a better way to endure.   Man is a thinker and a survivor and Gilding believes there are enough people in the world who will come up with creative solutions to get us through and offers much information on how ways are being worked on even as we speak to get over some of the hurdles.   Lots of good information here.   It keeps you intrigued to find out where he is going will all the heart stopping subjects, what is being said on both sides of all the issues he brings up,  where moral turpitude is leading us and answers to counteract the negatives with positives.   Gilding has really done his homework.   He spells it all out, he delivers what is being said and done globally to address it,  then just when things look the most bleak, he tells the reader how optimistic he is that things are going to be o.k. and then presents details on why he believes that.   Really good book.   

Thursday, June 18, 2015

The Demographic Cliff

The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper during the Great Deflation of 2014-2019 by Harry S Dent, Jr.
357 Pages

"Bestselling author and financial guru Harry Dent shows why we're facing a "great deflation" after five years of desperate stimulus -- and what to do about it now Throughout his long career as an economic forecaster, Harry Dent has relied on a not-so-secret weapon: demographics. Studying the predictable things people do as they age is the ultimate tool for understanding trends. For instance, Dent can tell a client exactly when people will spend the most on potato chips. And he can explain why our economy has risen and fallen with the peak spending of generations, and why we now face a growing demographic cliff with the accelerating retirement of the Baby Boomers around the world. Dent predicted the impact of the Boomers hitting their highest growth in spending in the 1990s, when most economists saw the United States declining. And he anticipated the decline of Japan in the 1990s, when economists were proclaiming it would overtake the U.S. economy. But now, Dent argues, the fundamental demographics have turned against the United States and will hit more countries ahead. Inflation rises when a larger than usual block of younger people enter the workforce, and it wanes when large numbers of older people retire, downsize their homes, and cut their spending. The mass retirement of the Boomers won't just hold back inflation; it and massive debt deleveraging will actually cause deflation--weakening the economy the most from 2014 into 2019. Dent explores the implications of his controversial predictions. He offers advice on retirement planning, health care, real estate, education, investing, and business strategies. For instance . . . BUSINESSES should get lean and mean now. Identify segments that you can clearly dominate and sell off or shut down others. If you don't, the economy will do it for you, more painfully and less profitably.INVESTORS should sell stocks by mid-January 2014 and look to buy them back in 2015 or later at a Dow as low as 5,800.FAMILIES should wait to buy real estate in areas where home prices have gone back to where the bubble started in early 2000.GOVERNMENTS need to stop the endless stimulus that creates more bubbles and kills the middle class, and should assist in restructuring the unprecedented debt bubble of 1983-2008. Dent shows that if you take the time to understand demographic data, using it to your advantage isn't all that difficult. By following his suggestions, readers will be able to find the upside to the downturn and learn how to survive and prosper during the most challenging years ahead."

An interesting take and I don't know if it will become true.  However as an individual, the book doesn't give much to the reader on how to personally take care of themselves during the predicted downturn.